Small scale improvement - big scale gain. And they CAN be done with local knowledge
Archive - Originally posted on "The Horse's Mouth" - 2011-05-02 09:18:51 - Graham Ellis
Full credit to a politician who looks at the tactics as well as the strategy. The strategy is the longer term stuff, and where we're headed - and it comes with a relatively low initial cost in the ramp-up phase of some project, with what used to be called a high "green shield stamp" rating in votes at the next election. That's from the days when company reps used to drive their cars to fill up with petrol not at the lowest price for their company, but rather doing so where they got maximum reward point kickbacks.
I was brought up on "take care of the pennies and the pounds will take care of themselves" - perhaps I have Scots blood somewhere - but it seems so often to be the case that "we're so busy taking care of the pounds that we haven't got time to bother with the pennines". But it's incredible what can be bought for a few pence, and how those few pence moved around can make the most incredible difference, perhaps even paying themselves bavk many times over. So I'm truely heartened to see Duncan Hames, our MP, putting his words, and his influence, time and knowledge into some of these penny-projects as well as looking at (on the same rail side) such welcomed topics as main line electification in our area, and at topics such as HS2, which I don't know enough about to come down on one side of the fence or the other.
A decent service on the TransWilts - what would it need? A carriage or two running up and down the line, and staff to run it. But it's fallen rather between two stools of late - there's the "you already have a service so we won't look at it" approach that was taken in the ATOC report on where lines where services should start, and there's the "you can't join us" approach from ACoRP because they feel we don't have enough trains to call a service. How good to see that certain people (and I see it at the Conservative lead Wiltshire Council, as well as from our Liberal Democrat MP) are looking at the pennies - and looking for intelligent solutions.
There are two pieces of the jigsaw that need putting into place for a proper TransWilts service. Until a couple of months ago, that was three pieces - but we now have the industry standard studies and surveys that 'prove' the case. Those two pieces are:
a) We need those carriages - there isn't a stock of spare carriages waiting on the shelf for leasers purchasers, and it's something of a seller's market out there. Regrettably, this leads to competition between various good cases, and some of those who are lucky enough to have usable (and popular) trains already looking to consolidate their position by getting them lengthened ... and to (they feel) better their chances by making life difficult for others who are less fortunate in currently having a service so sporadic as to be effectively absent.
b) We need those pennies - "pennies" in government / train running terms are NOT the same as pennies to you, dear reader, and me as private individuals. And at times of financial constraint such as we're in, the pennines must be spent wisely and also be seen to be spent wisely.
Fortunately, I can see solutions to (a) and (b) and it's a question of putting the pieces in the jigsaw.
Carriages
Let's say that there are TWO extra carriages available to strengthen rush hour services from West Wiltshire, which are overcrowded into Bath and Bristol, to the extent that passengers are being left behind at Bradford-on-Avon and Freshford stations. There are two options:
Option 1. Add an extra carriage to each of the two busiest trains. Solution immediate. Congestion resolved. But at the price of an extra carriage that's only doing something useful for about 20 minutes in the morning and (on return later in the day) 20 minutes in the early evening, and is in the depot for the rest of the day.
Now - ask yourself WHY people are on those overcrowded trains. Well - it turns out that around 50,000 journeys per year are made on them by people who really don't want or need to be on that line / train at all. They're travelling between Warminster / Westbury / Trowbridge and Chippenham / Swindon - where there's a perfectly good railway line ... just no trains running up it after the one at 7 a.m. until the one at 7:30 p.m. And that leead you to ...
Option 2. Run the extra carriages as new trains from Warminster / Westbury / Trowbridge to Chippenham and Swindon. Solution on Bradford-on-Avon and Freshford overcrowding almost immediate as people switch from "dogleg" to direct services. What else does option 2 bring:
a) Shorter journeys across from West Wilts to Chippenham and Swindon - from 15 minutes (good connection) up to an hour per journey.
b) Through trains across Wilsthire which will encourage a further growth in traffic
c) A train onto a line where it can run usefully all day - not just for 20 minutes in each peak
d) A proper train service to the town or Melksham (24,000 population, large commuter flows)
There are two words of caution here, though
e) It may be necessary to stop extra London expresses at Oldfield Park and / or Keynsham in the future to help reduce growing overcrowding there onthe morning flow into Bristol (not necessarily a big problem as these very early trains into Bristol are in essence already commuter services from Swindon)
f) It costs more to run a carriage as a separate train than to stengthen an existing train - crew costs primarily. And that brings us on to ...
Extra Cost
Hang on a minute, though ... isn't this new service going to bring more people onto the trains, through the day and at weekends too, and raise income? YES - it is. And from the work we've done / reports commissioned, we've shown that the ridership on the TransWilts will actually be a superb base compared to others ...
a) Commuter traffic is TWO-WAY - Up to Swindon and down to West Wilts and Salisbury
b) This is an ALL YEAR service and not a seasonal one
c) There are substantial long distance links which will GENERATE INCOME for connecting trains, including incoming business and tourist trade which will fill some currently-empty seats on those connections
d) A substantial population of residents live all along the line and will make considerable LEISURE use of the line
But ... bums on seats don't necessarily lead straight to pounds in the pocket of the train operator to pay for the service and give him an operating profit. A line that's got regulated fares at a low rate-per-mile, a train that covers the miles relatively slowly, and a train that still needs a driver and conductor is a noxious operational cocktail financially. And add to that the current situation where the Train Operator is only allowed to keep a small part of the farebox income due to underperformance elsewhere ...
But there *are* possible solutions; "rejig the fare system" / raise the regulated rate is something that should be considered - a six pound return on a Saturday from Melksham to Swindon is wonderful value - just 12p per mile; in real terms that could go up (in my probably unwelcome opinion) to aroun 16p to 18p per mile, and it would make a huge difference. But it's a political hot potato, so I don't see it happening. What could be done?
a) I don't see why we should have to pay the "Fine" imposed on First Great Western from our line because they're underperforming elsewhere. If the Department for Transport were to consider our line to be a "new service", then the operator would retain the full fares paid by passengers, and this would make a HUGE difference. I have figures for this, but must plead "commercial in confidence".
b) Car parking at stations costs money almost everywhere else except in Melksham - it's over 7 pounds a day in Chippenham, for example. If you look back to my previous post, you'll see the expanse of space that would be available for parking, and by changing for the parking, even allowing for operational costs and even at a lower rate than Chippenham, a substantial extra revenue could be raised.
c) The building on the car park - ah "Melksham Station Building" ... and we have an idea or two there which may provide a degree of positive cashflow too. Once again, I have to plead "commecial in confidence" just for the moment.
Please discount my "rejig the fare system" - I don't see that happening as it's a political poisoned challice, but (a), (b) and (c) can happen.
Summary
So in summary, what do we have?
We have a good case - an excellent case for a service in theory. And we have an excellent mechanism through which it can be put into practise, with the Department for Transport being offered a forward looking approach which lets them redeploy stock intelligently rather than just throwing it at a currently-overcrowded stretch, and we have a financial case where the cost of extra crew can be met without either the Council tax payer or the Minster of Transport having to dip into his pocket.
We would love - at the TransWilts Community Rail Partnership - to see these jigsaw pieces fall into place. And it can be done; behind the scenes, many are working their best to help get it done.
I was brought up on "take care of the pennies and the pounds will take care of themselves" - perhaps I have Scots blood somewhere - but it seems so often to be the case that "we're so busy taking care of the pounds that we haven't got time to bother with the pennines". But it's incredible what can be bought for a few pence, and how those few pence moved around can make the most incredible difference, perhaps even paying themselves bavk many times over. So I'm truely heartened to see Duncan Hames, our MP, putting his words, and his influence, time and knowledge into some of these penny-projects as well as looking at (on the same rail side) such welcomed topics as main line electification in our area, and at topics such as HS2, which I don't know enough about to come down on one side of the fence or the other.