Archive - Originally posted on "The Horse's Mouth" - 2008-07-30 20:45:48 - Graham Ellis
It's good to take a strategic look ahead from time to time - not a look at the immediate tactics of the next step or two along the way, but a look far into the future, and see where we will be in many years time. A good friend of mine (a Doctor) who is something of a Timelord has downloaded the following for me from my future blog ... where I comment on transport in 2032. I wrote ...
25 years ago, in 2007, I attended the "Enquiry in Public into the Regional Spatial Strategy" in Exeter - a look ahead to government planning for housing and travel in the South West of England for the following 20 years. Arguments ranged about road developments, about where housing and employment should grow (and by how much), and so on. And it's interesting to look back now and see where we are today - how events have overtaken and modified the plans as they were made in those day, before energy prices rocketed from 2007 onwards, and ever decreasing resources and global warming forced some radical changes.
HISTORICAL BACKGROUND
In the South West, 2007 and 2008 were the peak years for long distance road passenger travel; a doubling of crude oil prices in 2008 lead to a 30% rise in petrol prices which lead to a move to more efficient private vehicles but, ultimately, a move on from the era where a family's affluence was measured by the number of cars they ran.
Long distance rail travel grew for several more years - peaking in 2010; the fuel price rises at first pushed people off the roads, and then (with rail prices rising too) more and more people reduced their journeys - working from home, holding electronic meetings, etc. The number of leisure journeys grew - but the length of such journeys dropped. Instead of holidaying in the Caribbean, our Prime Minister holidayed in Southwold.
Shorter public transport journeys - which we classify these days as local (up to 10km) and regional (up to 100km) continued to grow and indeed continue to grow to this day. Companies like First Great Western provided nearly all the rail services in the South West in 2007, and had bid for an operating franchise based on the "cash cow" of long distance travel and took on local services - with a forecast of 0.8% growth - only because the government forced them to. They found themselves seriously wrong-footed, and we went through some very interesting times. Totally inappropriate services were provided for a while - overcapacity from London to Bristol, but at the same time no practical service at all for regional / local services such as Oxford - Swindon - Trowbridge.
OVERVIEW - CURRENT SERVICES
How are services run today, then?
Almost every train service runs hourly, from 5 a.m. through to midnight.
Long distance trains stop every 40 or 50 miles, with a top speed of 90 m.p.h; faster than that was expensive in terms of extra energy use for very little gain. In any case long distance commuting is a thing of the past - people are now travelling to occasional meetings, or for leisure purposes on these services. Trains vary in length - up to 12 coaches on some routes, with 9 coaches for passenger seating, one customer service car, and a power and light goods car on the front and rear.
Regional services, which connect well at key points with long distance trains and other regional services, also run with a top speed of 90 m.p.h. Typically, they're "all stations" services stopping every 10 miles or so. They miss out some stations in urban areas where there are also local train services. You'll find up to six or seven coaches on a typical regional service - a power / light goods car, a customer service car, and up to 5 passenger coaches.
Local trains, in urban areas, run rather more frequently - at least once every 30 minutes, and sometimes more.
A high speed rail link was built in the first decade of this century, linking London to Folkstone for the Channel Tunnel. A project for other high speed lines, and trains called "HST2"s to run at very high speeds, were started. But after the Channel Tunnel link, none of these was completed. You can see some of the earthworks in the Midlands where construction was started and then abandoned ...
STOCK
The long distance trains (LDTs) that are running today use PEST (Practical Electrical Storage Technology). In other words, they're electric trains, but with no need for third rail or catenary that made electrification so expensive in infrastructure in the 20th Century. Originally designated "125" trains and capable of 125 m.p.h., these (now)electric trains have origins going back some 60 years. They were re-engined after about 30 years, with an intention of extending their life by another 10 years, then converted to stored electricity technology a few years later. Slower running speeds mean reduced energy use, reduced wear and tear, and it's no longer important to shave a few minutes off journey times. In any case, better acceleration compensates for lower top speeds, and a more uniform line speed increases line capacity in busy areas.
Regional trains (RTs) are also "125"s converted to PEST - or rather they are "half 125s". Half the length of long distance trains, single power coach, and with a streamlined cowling on the other end of the train. The much reduced frequency of long distance trains lead to a surplus of units, and the elimination of peak demand in what used to be a peak hour released more of them - and each spare LDT converted to two RTs.
Local trains, also PEST powered, have a top speed of 60 m.p.h, which is plenty. Electricity gives excellent acceleration, and distances are short. Once again, you'll find old diesel units at the heart of most of the local trains - former class 150 units from all across the country now work in the West, forming 4 car local trains in Bristol, Exeter, Plymouth.
SERVICES
This example is from my own region - trains to and through Severnside which stretches from the town of Bent on the northern flank on Salisbury Plain up to Tewkesbury, across to the Welsh border and down to Taunton and Yeovil.
Salisbury, Wilton, Codford, Warminster, Dilton, Westbury, White Horse, Trowbridge, Bradford-on-Avon, Avoncliff, Freshford, Limpley Stoke, Batheaston, Bath, Oldfield Park, Saltford, Keynsham, Brislington and Bristol Central. (2 times per hour)
Weston-super-Mare to Bristol Central, Bristol North, Gloucester and Cheltenham, Ashchurch and Worcester (All stations, 2 times per hour to Gloucester, then hourly)
Portishead and all stations via Bristol Central and Bristol North to Severn Tunnel (2 times per hour)
Bristol Central and all stations to Clifton, Avonmouth, Henbury and Bristol North (2 times per hour)
Bristol Airport and all stations to Avonmouth (via Bristol Central, Bristol North, Pilning and Severn Beach) (2 times per hour)
• Connections
One of the key features of the rail network is to provide for true door to door journeys with excellent connections all along the way. Although trains are less frequent on some lines than they used to be, they are always "clockface" at all times of day, and connect excellently.
Taking my own regional service from Melksham, for example, it offers a rail connection into the Salisbury and Portsmouth express at Westbury (the two trains pull in alongside each other), a connection at Yeovil for Weymouth, at Exeter for Kingswear, for Exmouth and for Ilfracombe, and at Plymouth for Cornwall. In the other direction, there's a connection at Chippenham for Bath and Bristol, at Swindon for London and South Wales, at Oxford for Birmingham, at Milton Keynes for Liverpool and for Gretna, and at Bedford for Sheffield and the North East. With all services being hourly, other changes no longer involve the 2 or 3 hour waits we were familiar with in 2008 under First if - for example - you wanted to travel from Melksham to Westbury and on to Taunton.
STATIONS AS RAILHEADS
"Door to door" is the objective of public transport, so you'll find that nearly every station is now fed by a network of PEST Trolleys - vehicles that carry up to 20 passengers at speeds of up to 20 m.p.h. and congregate at stations just before trains are due, leaving shortly after trains have called. They're automatically driven along fixed routes and to a timetable, but with extra vehicles on standby to provide some fillin at busy times.
Talking Melksham - most services run from the 2012 station hub at the Dunch Lane retail park (formerly Leekes)
Service 1 - Bromham - Sandridge - Forest Road - Town Centre - Station - Whitley, Atworth, Stonar
Service 2 - Hilperton - Semington - Town Centre - Station - Avon Road - Beanacre - Lacock village
Service 3 - Bowerhill - Spa Road - Town Centre - Station - Broughton Gifford - Holt
Service 5 - Station - Town Centre - Woodrow
Service 6 - Avon Meadows - Station - Town Centre - Queensway - Snowberry - Snarleton
Service 9 - Station - Town Centre - Spa Road - Melksham Oak - Sells Green
Through services are not provided to neighbouring settlements, but route ends co-incide for good connections. For example, Service 1 at Bromham connects into the service via Devizes to Lavington, and at Atworth into the service from there to Box.
OPERATIONAL MATTERS
All trains operate under the Train Operation and Safety System for Automated Railways (TOSSAR). This is a driverless system that used GPS over a secure network to track train positioning, and wide area rail track analysis (WARTA) to monitor the condition of the track and its surround with the passing of every train.
Trains carry enough PEST cells for 8 hours of running, with cells being replaced at selected stations throughout twice a day on each unit. PEST cells take up to a week to recharge through solar, wind or wave power. Some services even make additional stops to ensure that the cells can be replaced without the need for further transportation of them. (Dawlish, Pilning for wave energy).
All stations now have security in the form of Station Entry Arches (SEARCH) which undertake necessary security checks and note traveller's Wireless Credit Cards (WCCs) to charge for the journeys. There is no longer any need to purchase tickets ahead of time.
Services operate 7 days a week, from around 5 a.m. to midnight, with closure from 00:30 to 04:30 to allow works to be carried out on the tracks. Minor train maintainance is carried out overnight, with trains undergoing further (full day) maintainance at regular intervals. Such maintenance is a 7 day a week operation too.
Schedules are set to include an extra 10% for unforeseen delays on each stage of the journey. There's a target for 99% of service to arrive at each station they call at within one minute of the scheduled time, and for 99.9% to arrive within 4 minutes. These targets are regularly achieved.
STAFFING
All trains except local trains convey a customer services coach with a customer services representative on board who can help you with travel information, sell you refreshments, etc. The customer service representative is also a trained rail safety officer who is on hand to deal with any emergency situation.
PRICING
Journeys are charged at 3.5 Euros per mile (that's the equivalent of 35p per mile at 2008 prices) with an additional charge of 20 Euros for each journey to cover administration costs. So that a 100 Mile journey from (say) Melksham to London would cost 370 Euros (37 pounds at 2008 prices). In order to encourage regular passengers to travel at times when services are quieter, there's a 10% surcharge for travel if the train was more that 80% filled on the same day 4 weeks previous, and a 20% reduction for travel at times that the train was less that 40% filled on the same day 4 weeks ago.
All travellers may purchase an "I prefer the train" railcard for 400 Euros annually, entitling them to a 10% discount off all fares expect at the busiest (80% + full) time.
All trains are single class, and there are no longer fare reductions for Pensioners, Children, Overseas Visitors, members of the forces, students, etc. VAT is charged at the current lower rate of 21%.
FREIGHT - parcel / retail level
60 years ago, people used their local shops when they wanted to make purchases and they carried them home on the bus. 40 years ago, people drove in their cars to the store on the edge of town and brought their purchases home. 20 years ago, goods were ordered online and a much-duplicated set of delivery vehicles ran short and long distance making deliveries.
Today, we use a Package Integrated Service System. Packages are collected by local vehicles running on PEST and taken to the local railway station, where they are fed into the Warehouse for Through Freight. The luggage /power cars of long distance and regional trains pull up alongside the warehouse, and goods are automatically transferred onto trains ... and the process is reversed at the destination to give a door to door integrated system. (suggestions for acronyms, please, for the Package Integrated Service System and Warehouse for Through Freight)
ROADS
Only a few people still run their own private petrol or diesel road vehicle these days - and they're mostly historical enthusiasts; their mileage is limited by the high cost of fuel - some 150 Euros per litre (that's 15 pounds per litre at 2008 prices). But many people have PEST vehicles; although slow to charge at home through wind and solar energy, they are more than adequate for local journeys on which they are computer driven - using the same system as the trolleys. They're ideal for the school run, or for personal transport to your nearest trolley stop or station; there's no parking problems there any more, as now that they're automatic the vehicles can make their own way home, and can pick you up too, summoned to meet your train by computer control.
The former motorway and trunk road (bypass) network is to a very large extent redundant - long distance travel for passengers and freight has been very much reduced and is almost exclusively rail based. In my own part of the world, the M4 motorway still has some use with extra junctions every mile or two making it into a useful local road. The A350 bypass sections around Chippenham and Melksham are used for local traffic, but the Westbury bypass, built against all forward looking advice and without and intermediate accesses, turned out to be a whiter elephant. There's simply no need these days for a road that avoids the major transport hub at Westbury station, and it's now the most beautiful of tracks for walkers, cyclist and riders who want to take in the magnificent Well Head Valley and fine views of the Westbury White horse it affords.
AIRLINES and SHIPPING
Air travel has also reduced in the past 30 years; still relying largely on fossil fuel as PEST cells are very heavy, flights are now down to a strategic set of long distance routes. In our area, Bristol flights run every 4 hours to Rekjavik (for connections to North America), Amsterdam (for connections to Europe) , Bagdad (for connections to the East), Cassablanca (for connections to Africa and South America) and Dundee. Flight prices are based on 5 Euros per mile (50p at 2008 UK prices).
There has been a resurgence in passenger travel by sea over very long distances; rather than fly to the USA for an annual holiday in Florida, most families will make in the trip of a lifetime, taking a month out and travelling on the daily liner from Liverpool.